The Grey Brief
Institutional perspective on origination, founder psychology, and strategic transitions.
Structural Risk in AI-Driven Origination: The Plausible List Problem
AI-powered market mapping has reshaped buy-side origination, but the integrity of the target universe is increasingly in question. Classification systems built on large language models create plausible lists that appear comprehensive yet exclude companies investors never realize were missed. This article examines the structural risks embedded in AI-driven sourcing infrastructure and why coverage accuracy, not speed, determines mandate outcomes.
The 150,000 Company Problem
Most private equity CRMs are built to store companies, not to decide which ones matter. As databases scale, structure decays. What begins as thesis-driven coverage turns into undifferentiated accumulation, forcing BD teams to rely on sorting and filtering to answer a question the data was never built to answer: who should we call next.
How to Know What Inning You're In (And What to Do About It)
Most private equity firms pursue sectors without assessing what inning they are entering. This analysis outlines how to evaluate saturation stages and align origination and deployment with the capabilities each stage requires.